When Service Pack 1 is released for Windows XP, users that are using various leaked keys will not be able to install the update:
The beta of Service Pack 1 for Windows XP has now shipped to testers and, as previously advertised, it declines to install if you're using a leaked WinXP licence key. But - again as previously advertised - it doesn't deactivate your installation, just stops you applying the service pack.
So far, people using copies of Windows XP that have been activated using one of the leaked keys have had no trouble getting patches and updates because Windows Update didn't check the validity of their licence. But as Microsoft is clearly stating that licence information is now being gathered by Windows Update, and that a "validly licensed copy of Windows ensures that you will receive on-going updates," then it seems pretty logical to presume that an invalidly licensed copy of Windows ensures that you won't.
I assume this will be the case for other updates, also. The Register has the
story.